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How to Evaluate if a Company is Fairly Valued Using the PE Ratio?

Writer's picture: Max TehMax Teh

Updated: Feb 19

Disclaimer: This communication is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or a solicitation to buy, sell or hold any investment product. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.

 

When analyzing whether a company is fairly valued from a PE ratio perspective, it’s important to assess more than just the absolute value of the ratio. The following framework provides a systematic approach to determine if the company is trading at a reasonable valuation:


A Company’s PE Ratio is Considered Fairly Valued When:

  1. The Current PE Ratio is Below the Average or at the Low End of the Past 5 Years PE Range

    • This indicates that the stock might be undervalued compared to its historical valuation trends.

  2. The Company’s Net Income is Increasing

    • Rising net income ensures that the company is not just cheaper because of declining profitability but is instead delivering consistent growth in earnings.

    • Preferably when the past Net Income growth rate + Dividend Yield is higher than current P/E ratio [1]

    • Not favourable when the current P/E ratio is higher than past Net Income growth rate + Dividend Yield multiply by 2 [1]

  3. The Profit Margin is Increasing

    • An expanding profit margin suggests improved operational efficiency, pricing power, or reduced costs, further supporting sustainable earnings growth.

How to Find the PE Ratio Trend?

To assess a company’s PE ratio over the past 5 years:

  • Visit financecharts.com > Valuation Charts > Select PE Ratio > Adjust to a 5-year (or 3-year) period.

    • For companies that have only recently turned profitable, the 3-year period may provide more meaningful insights.

Examples of Companies That Fit the Framework

1. Fortinet (FTNT) – PE Ratio: 46x

  • PE Ratio: Current PE is below the average line of the past 5 years.

  • Net Income: Increasing consistently.

  • Past Net Income Growth rate (52%) higher than current P/E ratio (46x)

  • Profit Margin: Improving steadily.


2. Netflix (NFLX) – PE Ratio: 48x

  • PE Ratio: Current PE is below the average line of the past 5 years.



  • Net Income: Rising steadily.

  • Past Net Income Growth rate (61%) higher than current P/E ratio (48x)



  • Profit Margin: Increasing over time.

  • 📌 Additional Note: Netflix’s management has outlined clear strategies to enhance profitability, such as increasing subscription prices, which could positively impact their bottom line.


3. MercadoLibre (MELI) – PE Ratio: 64x

  • PE Ratio: Current PE is below the average of the past 3 years (5 years not usable).

  • Net Income: Growing steadily.



  • however past year Net Income Growth of 46% is not higher than current PE ratio of 65x.


  • Profit Margin: Gradually improving.


Examples of Companies That Don’t Fit the Framework


1. Apple (AAPL) – PE Ratio: 37x

  • PE Ratio: Current PE is above the average line of the past 5 years.

  • Net Income: Flat or declining.

  • Profit Margin: Moving sideways, showing no improvement.


Notes on Limitations of this Method

This method is not as applicable to companies that are:

  1. Not Yet Profitable: Without earnings, the PE ratio isn’t meaningful.

  2. Just Turned Profitable: In such cases, it’s better to use the PS (Price-to-Sales) Ratio for valuation analysis.



Final Thoughts

By combining the PE ratio trend with growth in net income and profit margins, you can form a more holistic view of whether a stock is trading at a fair valuation. This method is especially useful for investors focused on fundamentally strong companies that are still undervalued relative to their historical performance.




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Footnotes

[1]"One up on wallstreet" - Peter Lynch, Chapter 13 (excerpt 1, excerpt 2)

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